Methodology by Solution

Price-Based Solutions

How are commodity prices calculated?

We calculate commodity prices through a monthly cycle of three stages — gathering data from official sources, transforming and normalizing it to a common basis, and modeling it with the approach (trade-based, formula-based, freight-based, manufacturing cost-based, or compiled) that best fits the commodity and market.

After modeling, we review every value against related assessments and independent sources before publication — see How does Intratec review modeled prices before publishing? in our How Prices Are Assessed article. That review is what keeps a single anomalous data point from distorting the published series.

The full breakdown of how a raw figure moves from source to published price is set out in Which five approaches turn data into prices? and What happens to a raw figure before it is used? on our methodology site.

What price types does Intratec publish?

We publish six price types across our Primary Commodity Prices service — unit value, transaction price, formula-based price, netback price, netforward price, and compiled price — each produced through a different one of the five modeling approaches.

In practice, these six types map to three market-facing categories you'll see in the data: spot prices, long-term contract prices, and transaction prices. Which type applies to a given series is fixed and disclosed at the series level, so you can check the assessment catalog to see exactly which type backs any commodity you're tracking.

The full definition of what identifies an individual price assessment — location, market side, price type, and commercial basis — is set out in What defines an individual price assessment? and What are trade-based prices? on our methodology site.

How does Intratec handle delayed trade data?

When official trade statistics are delayed — typically by one to three months — we generate a preliminary price using regression models built on related assessments that don't carry the same lag, and label it (P) so it's clearly distinguishable from a final figure.

Once the official trade data becomes available in a later monthly cycle, we replace the preliminary estimate with the final value. This is the same mechanism behind all three status labels you'll see across our data — Final (Fi), Preliminary (P), and Forecast (F) — so you always know how settled a given figure is.

What role preliminary estimates play, and what each status label means, is set out in What role do preliminary estimates play? and What do the Final, Preliminary, and Forecast labels mean? on our methodology site.

Are short-term forecasts included, and how accurate are they?

Yes — we include short-term forecasts for selected commodities, extending about six months ahead of the latest reported period, and make them available on Pro, Advanced, and Ultimate plans.

Forecasts are generated from related commodity prices, economic indexes, and industry indicators, and are rounded to two significant figures rather than the three used for historical and preliminary data — a deliberate signal that a forecast carries more uncertainty than a confirmed or preliminary figure. We monitor forecast accuracy and recalibrate the models as new data arrives each month.

How far ahead forecasts extend and how they're produced is set out in Which datasets include forecasts, and how far ahead? and How far ahead do the forecasts look? on our methodology site.

Production Cost Methodology

How does Intratec estimate production costs?

We build production cost estimates bottom-up, following a fixed sequence: researching the process in public technical literature, defining a conceptual plant design, then estimating capital investment, operating costs, and the product value the plant must sustain to cover all costs plus a return on capital.

This same process applies identically across every commodity, production route, and country we cover, which is what keeps reports comparable to one another even though each analyzes a different plant.

The full seven-step workflow, including how technology maturity shapes the assumptions, is set out in How is a production cost report developed? on our methodology site.

How accurate are Intratec's production cost estimates?

Our production cost reports are Class 4 budgetary estimates — a conceptual-level accuracy class suited to investment screening and preliminary feasibility decisions, not detailed engineering or construction planning. The accuracy range widens the less proven the underlying technology is and the less information is available about it.

Comparing a reported estimate against an actual plant cost calls for some care, since factors like minor process differences, overdesign, or local taxes and fees can make the two legitimately diverge — the estimate is a projection of probable cost, not a guaranteed number for any specific project.

The full accuracy tables by technology maturity, and how estimates hold up against real plant costs, are set out in How accurate are the capital cost estimates? and Can estimates be compared with actual plant costs? on our methodology site.

What plant assumptions underlie Intratec cost reports?

We build every Commodity Production Costs report on the same standardized design assumptions unless a report states otherwise: a standardized design practice typical of major chemical companies, a plant built on a clear field with no existing infrastructure to reuse, and a typical large single-line production capacity.

These shared assumptions are what let reports covering many different production processes be compared on equal terms — and they connect to each process's technology maturity classification, which in turn affects the contingencies and return-on-capital assumptions built into the estimate.

The full set of assumptions, and how technology maturity is classified, is set out in What assumptions underpin every estimate? and How is a technology's maturity assessed? on our methodology site.

Industry Economics Methodology

How are the plant construction cost indexes calculated?

Our Plant Construction Cost Indexes (IC Indexes) are monthly composite indicators built from four parameter groups — labor, materials, logistics, and business-environment costs — combined into a single figure that reflects the relative cost of building a process plant in a given country at a given point in time.

Each index is normalized so January 2000 equals 100, giving you a stable baseline: a value of 150 means construction costs are 50% higher than that reference point. You can use the index to escalate a capital cost estimate from one period to current conditions, or to compare cost trends across countries and time.

The full breakdown of what each parameter group covers, and how the index is applied to escalate costs, is set out in What do Plant Construction Cost Indexes measure? and How is the index used to escalate capital costs? on our methodology site.

How are industrial utility costs estimated by country?

Industrial utility costs for each of the 33 countries we cover are estimated through cost models — not direct price surveys — that combine labor cost, construction-cost inflation, and energy cost inputs, calibrated against real contract prices, industrial tariffs, and producer price indices.

For each of the ten utilities we price, the dataset can present up to three figures: on-site cash cost, off-site cash cost, and contract price, so you can compare the cost of self-supply against what the market charges. These models draw on energy prices from our own Primary Commodity Prices and Energy Prices & Markets data, keeping the figures internally consistent with our broader dataset.

The full list of covered utilities, their assumed capacities, and what each cost basis represents is set out in What does the Industrial Utility Costs dataset cover? and What do on-site, off-site, and contract figures mean? on our methodology site.

Cross-Solution

Do all solutions share the same methodology?

No — each of our four solutions uses a distinct methodology suited to what it delivers, and the methodologies aren't interchangeable: they differ in data sources, modeling approaches, and the economic question each is built to answer.

What ties them together is a shared foundation rather than a shared model — the same reliance on public official sources, the same absence of commercial ties to market participants, and the same two-layer validation before publication. Where one solution's data feeds another — for example, our utility cost models drawing on our own energy price references — that's a deliberate design choice connecting distinct methodologies, not a sign they've merged into one.

The full comparison of what each methodology covers, and what all four share, is set out in How do the methodologies differ across solutions? and What do all Intratec methodologies share? on our methodology site.