How Prices Are Assessed
Modeling Approaches
What methods does Intratec use to calculate price assessments?
We produce price assessments through five modeling approaches — trade-based, formula-based, freight-based, manufacturing cost-based, and compiled — and select whichever one best fits the data available for each commodity and market.
Which approach applies to a given series is fixed and disclosed at the series level, so you can always check the assessment catalog to see which method produced a particular price rather than treating every figure as interchangeable.
The full breakdown of what each approach requires and when it's the best fit is set out in Which five approaches turn data into prices? and What does each modeling approach require, and when is it best? on our methodology site.
What is a trade-based price and how is it calculated?
A trade-based price is derived from official government trade statistics, filtered for specification, volume, and location, then clustered to group comparable transactions so a few atypical trades don't skew the result.
Two output types come out of this filtering: a unit value, the straight ratio of total trade value to quantity with no further treatment, and a transaction price, which additionally removes low-volume trades and statistical outliers to better reflect the mid-market level.
How we establish homogeneity, and how each of the two price types is calculated, is set out in What are trade-based prices? on our methodology site.
What is the difference between unit value and transaction price?
A unit value is the simplest trade-based figure — total trade value divided by quantity, with no statistical treatment — while a transaction price filters out low-volume trades and removes statistical outliers to better represent the mid-market level.
Which one to look at depends on what you're checking: a unit value is a transparent, unadjusted reference showing the raw aggregate of everything that traded, while a transaction price is the more robust basis for tracking a specific commodity market, since it strips out atypical deals that could otherwise skew the picture.
The full comparison, including where a raw unit value can mislead, is set out in What are the limitations of unit values? and What are trade-based prices? on our methodology site.
How does Intratec calculate prices when there's no trade data?
When direct trade data isn't available, we use formula-based prices — regression models that calculate a price from related commodity prices, economic indicators, and currency rates rather than from direct trade records.
This lets us extend coverage to commodities where trade statistics are sparse or significantly delayed, as long as a stable, measurable relationship exists between the target price and the drivers chosen for it.
How we identify, fit, and apply that regression relationship is set out in What are formula-based prices? on our methodology site.
How does Intratec estimate netback or netforward prices?
Netback and netforward prices are freight-based assessments — a netback subtracts freight and insurance from a price at one location to recover the value at the loading terminal, while a netforward adds freight and insurance to a loading-terminal price to project the value at the destination.
These are useful for evaluating trade-route competitiveness or comparing delivered costs across geographies when a direct assessment doesn't exist at the location you need.
The full mechanics of how each direction is calculated are set out in What are freight-based prices? on our methodology site.
Where do compiled price series come from?
Compiled prices are built from existing public-source price series — not modeled by us from raw trade data. We format those series to our internal structures, statistically validate them to remove anomalies, and average them over the month into a single figure.
This approach is used wherever a suitable public series already covers the commodity and meets our quality and continuity standards, so our contribution is aggregation, validation, and quality control rather than original modeling.
The full pipeline, from source selection to the final monthly average, is set out in What are compiled prices? on our methodology site.
How does Intratec estimate manufacturing cost-based prices?
Manufacturing cost-based prices estimate a commodity's market value from the cost of producing it — raw materials, utilities, labor, maintenance, overhead, taxes, and insurance — used for commodities whose price closely tracks production economics rather than trade volumes.
The raw-material and utility inputs that feed this model are themselves figures we assess ourselves, drawn from our own Primary Commodity Prices, Energy Prices & Markets, and Industry Economics & Competitiveness data, so a manufacturing cost-based price stays auditable end-to-end against our other published assessments.
The full list of cost components and where each input price comes from is set out in What are manufacturing cost-based prices? and Where do the input prices come from? on our methodology site.
Data Gaps and Normalization
What happens when market data is insufficient for modeling?
When the standard data inputs for a model fall short, qualified analysts step in and estimate the value from other factual market signals — related assessments, producer references, deal reports, and supply-and-demand fundamentals — rather than leaving the assessment unpublished.
This fallback doesn't by itself change a data point's status label unless the shortage is prolonged; a brief gap is handled this way and the series continues as normal. Consult our help center article "What do the data statuses mean?" to see how to interpret the label attached to any given figure.
What role analyst estimates play in modeling, and what happens when an assessment's data shortage is prolonged, is set out in What role do analyst estimates play in modeling? and What happens when an assessment's data falls short? on our methodology site.
How are prices normalized across locations and quality grades?
Before any price is published, we normalize the gathered data across four dimensions — location, using freight rates; quality and grade, using indexes and cross-referenced sources; trade size and delivery terms, using averages and outlier removal; and timing, using formulas that align data released on different schedules.
Normalization is what makes assessments from different markets directly comparable — it runs alongside modeling rather than as a strictly separate step afterward, and it's the same shared stage every one of the five modeling approaches passes through before a figure reaches you.
The full detail on each dimension is set out in What is normalization in a price assessment? and How are assessments normalized? on our methodology site.
Review and Reliability
How does Intratec review modeled prices before publishing?
Every modeled price is reviewed by our analysts before publication, checking for inconsistencies that may arise from missing data, mathematical errors, technical issues, or data anomalies.
The review framework cross-checks each price against:
- The same commodity reported by independent sources
- The same commodity assessed at different geographic locations
- Exporter and importer trade reports for the same commodity
- More actively traded neighboring specifications (e.g., a closely related grade or delivery term)
- Adjacent time frames (prior months and seasonal patterns)
- Feedstocks and derivatives (upstream and downstream price relationships)
- Different transport types, trade volumes, and shipping routes
If the source data doesn't reflect typical market behavior after this review, the analyst publishes the model output instead of the data-derived result — so a single anomalous data point doesn't distort the published series. Final publication then includes loading the data into the API and website, testing the presentation layer, publishing release notes, and notifying you by email once the database is updated.
This review sits within our broader two-layer validation process — automated cross-referencing followed by expert review — described in How is data validated before publication? on our methodology site.
How reliable are Intratec's price assessments?
Our price assessments are reliable because every stage carries its own safeguard: sourcing from official, auditable trade statistics; automated and expert-reviewed processing; multi-layer review against related assessments before publication; and full methodology documentation available for independent verification.
Assessments are designed as benchmarks for trend analysis, procurement planning, and investment studies — for highly volatile periods, sharp intra-month movements may not be fully captured in a monthly aggregate, which is worth keeping in mind if you're using the data for near-term decisions.
That reliability also rests on who produces the assessments, not only on how they are produced: our employees are required to confirm annually the absence of any relationship or financial interest that could impair their objectivity.
The independence commitments and validation steps behind that reliability are set out in How is data validated before publication? and What independence commitments back the analysis? on our methodology site.